Did OPEC change its behaviour after the November 2014 meeting?

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract We analyse the behaviour of OPEC as a group by formulating theoretical model that encompasses perfect competition and various forms imperfect model. By confronting with quarterly data for period from 1992 to 2013 within context cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model, we find support hypothesis regarding output decisions OPEC. also dynamic equilibrium correction is stable in-sample. However, forecasting exercise 2014 2018 reveals breaks down following November meeting at which decided keep its supply unchanged despite huge oil price drop in advance. The systematically underpredicts production over forecast much 2.5 million barrels per day end 2016. During 2018, however, forecasts quite well. Our findings suggest did indeed change significantly after meeting.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Empirical Economics

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1435-8921', '0377-7332']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-021-02104-5